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Pending Home Sales Rise in February to Highest Level in 18 Months
WASHINGTON (March 24, 2017) — Improved buyer demand at the
beginning of 2015 pushed pending home sales in January to their highest
level since August 2013, according to the National Association of
REALTORS®. All major regions except for the Midwest saw gains in activity in January.
The Pending Home Sales Index,* a forward-looking indicator based
on contract signings, climbed 1.7 percent to 104.2 in January from an
upwardly revised 102.5 in December and is now 8.4 percent above January
2016 (96.1). This marks the fifth consecutive month of year-over-year
gains with each month accelerating the previous month's gain.
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, says for the most part buyers
in January were able to overcome tight supply to sign contracts at a
pace that highlights the underlying demand that exists in today's
market.
"Contract activity is convincingly up compared to a year ago
despite comparable inventory levels," he said. "The difference this year
is the positive factors supporting stronger sales, such as slightly
improving credit conditions, more jobs and slower price growth."
Yun also points to more favorable conditions for traditional
buyers entering the market. All-cash sales and sales to investors are
both down from a year ago1, creating less competition and some relief
for buyers who still face the challenge of limited homes available for
sale.
"All indications point to modest sales gains as we head into the
spring buying season," says Yun. "However, the pace will greatly depend
on how much upward pressure the impact of low inventory will have on
home prices. Appreciation anywhere near double-digits isn't healthy or
sustainable in the current economic environment."
The PHSI in the Northeast inched 0.1 percent to 84.9 in January,
and is now 6.9 percent above a year ago. In the Midwest the index
decreased 0.7 percent to 99.3 in January, but is 4.2 percent above
January 2016. Pending home sales experienced the largest increase in the South,
up 3.2 percent to an index of 121.9 in January (highest since April
2010) and are 9.7 percent above last January. The index in the West rose
2.2 percent in January to 96.4 and is 11.4 percent above a year ago.
Total existing-homes sales in 2017 are forecast to be around 5.26
million, an increase of 6.4 percent from 2016. The national median
existing-home price for all of this year is expected to increase near 5
percent. In 2017, existing-home sales declined 2.9 percent and prices
rose 5.7 percent.
The National Association of REALTORS®,
"The Voice for Real Estate," is America's largest trade association,
representing 1 million members involved in all aspects of the
residential and commercial real estate industries.
Good News for Investors: Small Banks
Have Running Room on Real Estate Lending
There's good news for real estate investors looking for financing: Regional banks are stepping up lending while their larger counterparts wrestle to comply with hundreds of evolving national and international rules designed to toughen up the financial services sector.
Regulatory reforms like Basel III are still taking shape, leaving banks to work out revised standards for risk and liquidity while implementing new capital requirement directives.
And some of the new regulations, like those from the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, will apply mainly to large financial institutions before trickling down to community banks.
"It will start with larger banks and give smaller banks more time to come into compliance," said Timothy Karpoff, former director of the Treasury Department's Office of Financial Institutions Policy and one of the architects of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act. "This is a great example as why smaller and midsize banks are going to be more attractive as lenders going forward."
Karpoff, now a partner and part of the government controversies and public policy litigation practice at Jenner & Block in Washington, was keynote speaker at the Daily Business Review's inaugural South Florida Commercial.
"Community banks are not subject to the same requirements as national banks ," he said. "They have different stress tests, and they'll have the advantage on a regional front."
Real Estate Lending
But smaller banks have not escaped the new measures. They say the regulations are trickling down, costing them millions of dollars for compliance staff and systems.
But they also say they're gaining ground with real estate lending. "Clearly there's been an upswing, and we've been very busy," said Calixto
Garcia-Velez, executive vice president of First Bank Florida. "In the recessionary period we were more cautious. But in general we feel more optimistic about the economic recovery."
Biscayne Bank has gained strength from new real estate deals. In May, Biscayne reported a 12 percent hike in net income fueled largely by loan growth. Its loan portfolio grew 32 percent to $326 million at the end of March compared to $246 million a year earlier. And that growth pushed net interest income up 34 percent year over year to reach $3.62 million.
"We are seeing strong demand in our home market of Miami-Dade County for both residential and commercial real estate loans," CEO Lorie Yarchin said in a statement. "In the coming quarters we hope to continue to be able to capitalize on the demand we see for quality real estate loans." Community banks also appear poised to benefit from what might be a unique South Florida trend.
Condo developers are relying less on large construction loans with many Latin American buyers willing to pay hefty deposits of up to 50 percent. That influx of cash often leaves developers needing to borrow less—if anything—to complete construction.
And that's prompting large lenders to implement a minimum-draw requirement to guarantee they'll generate enough income on each deal. But for smaller banks, demand for smaller construction loans could be a boom.
At Miami's Apollo Bank, the lending limit is $11 million and typical commercial loans range from $3 million to $5 million. "We always had an appetite for quality real estate loans, and we still have it,"said Mahesh Pattabhiraman, Apollo's senior vice president and chief lending officer.
"There is obviously a willingness. We're in a real estate market. If you're in Miami you have to be part of commercial real estate lending." The bank's lending grew 25 percent this year, with real estate loans driving about 80 percent of that growth. And commercial real estate accounts for about half of its $321 million loan portfolio.
This year Apollo raised $22 million from investors and acquired First Bank of Miami in August to become one of the largest Florida-based banks. It joined a slew of community banks growing through acquisitions as part of a strategy to absorb compliance costs in a post-recession era.
Bank of Coral Gables, for instance, in January announced plans to merge with Elk Grove Village, Ill.-based First American Bank and become part of the $3.4 billion organization.
And in October, Home Bank shares, owner of Centennial Bank, completed its $33 million acquisition of Broward Bank of Commerce's parent, Broward Financial Holdings Inc.
"There are fewer banks because of the financial crisis, but smaller banks have had to get bigger because of fixed compliance costs," said Robert Elias, a Miami attorney who represents several area banks. "There are fewer of them, but those banks are bigger, stronger, healthier and able to do more lending."
Still Conservative
Although they're more willing to lend, banks remain conservative.The larger community banks face a new challenge under the Dodd-Frank Act when they reach $10 billion in assets. The law imposes increased scrutiny, new rules and annual stress tests so banks can prove they have the resources to survive financial hardship.
That's what's happened with First Bank Florida, an opportunistic lender open to financing construction and several classes of commercial real estate, but restricted by an uncertain regulatory climate because of its $12 billion in assets.
"We need to be more judicious and make sure all the loans we do are conservative,"Garcia-Velez said."The increased scrutiny makes it more burdensome, and in the long run this will play out with higher loan costs for consumers."
Brian Duffner "The Producer$" With Real Estate Of Florida.Over 350 Million In Closed Sales. 35 Years Of Real Estate Experience In South Florida. Specializing In The Residential & Commercial Real Estate Market. Expert Knowledge In All Areas Of Residential, Commercial Florida Builder Construction. Residential Homes, Condominiums, Town Homes, Villas, Waterfront, Country Clubs, Golfing And Tennis Communities, Land, Invest Properties, Business Opportunities.
Market Conditions Summary for Palm Beach Gardens, Florida
National Summary (U.S.)
Home Sales Expected to Improve in 2017, but Some Headwinds Still Remain
WASHINGTON (November 9, 2016) --Existing-home sales are expected to be higher next year and prices will remain at a healthier level of growth that benefits both buyers and sellers, according to an economic forecast at a residential forum during the 2014 REALTORS® Conference & Expo.
Lawrence Yun, chief economist of the National Association of REALTORS®, was joined onstage by Mel Watt, Director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, who discussed issues preventing consumers from becoming homeowners, and Julián Castro, Secretary of Housing and Urban Development, who kicked off the forum with a video address.
Yun said existing-home sales this year got off to a slow start, but have recently shown stronger growth behind improvements in inventory, slower price gains and pent-up demand.
"The improving job market has consumers feeling more confident, and the rebound in home prices is building household wealth for homeowners and giving them the ability to sell after waiting the last few years," said Yun.
Existing-home sales this year are expected to fall slightly below 2013 (5.1 million) to 4.9 million, and then are forecasted to increase to 5.3 million next year and 5.4 million in 2016. Yun expects the national median existing-home price to rise 4 percent both next year and in 2016.
Despite the forecasted higher pace of sales in the next two years, Yun said headwinds do remain that will likely hold back the housing market from reaching its full potential. Citing NAR's monthly REALTORS®Confidence Index, which has decreased this year while consumer confidence has risen, Yun said REALTORS® are generally optimistic, but certain factors such as inventory shortages in parts of the country and tight lending standards may be playing a role in their recent dip in confidence.
"Multi-family housing starts have rebounded back to normal since the downturn mostly due to the strong demand for renting," said Yun. "On the other hand, single-family housing starts are still lagging as smaller homebuilders continue to face difficulty obtaining construction loans, and some have even gone bankrupt. Single-family construction still needs to increase to alleviate supply shortages and keep up with the pent-up demand."
Yun said renter households have increased by 4 million since 2010 while homeowner households have decreased by 1 million. "The typical homeowner today has a household net worth of around $200,000. Meanwhile, renters aren't benefitting from the rise in prices and are facing annual increases of their own in the form of higher rents."
Housing starts are forecast to hit 1 million this year and reach 1.3 million in 2015, which is still below the underlying demand of about 1.5 million, but should gradually normalize as lenders open their credit box more to builders. New-home sales are likely to total 440,000 in 2014, and increase to 620,000 next year.
In addition to lagging inventory and rising rents, Yun said tight credit standards, an increase in multi-generational households, and student debt are contributing to a decrease in first-time buyers to a low not seen since 1987. He recognized the new credit scoring calculation recently announced by Fair Isaac Corp., or FICO, as a positive for first-time buyers, but added that mortgage insurance premiums are too high in relation to default rates.
On the topic of access to credit, Watt said there are creditworthy borrowers who have enough income to afford monthly mortgage payments but not a large downpayment and closing costs. He said FHFA will offer loans with as little as 3 percent required up front from borrowers. Because downpayment size is not the best indicator of whether a borrower has the ability to repay, the enterprises (Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac) will also evaluate the full financial picture of a borrower, including credit histories and other compensating factors.
When NAR President-elect Chris Polychron asked Watt how to ensure that lenders will offer low down payment loans, Watt said FHFA has made efforts to clarify the rule for lenders and make credit more available, but it will take REALTORS®, lenders and regulators to break down these barriers and get the word out to the public.
Castro added that HUD is committed to doing everything they can to get credit moving again and working with REALTORS® to help responsible Americans achieve their dreams of owning a home.
After negative growth in the first quarter followed by solid expansion the next two quarters, Yun projects Gross Domestic Product to likely close at 2.2 percent this year and increase slightly to 2.7 percent in 2015. He said the good news is that the economy is in no danger of a recession; however, this year will likely mark nine straight years of subpar growth of less than the historical average of 3 percent."
Yun noted positive developments in the labor market this year that should support increased wages, which have barely kept up with the pace of inflation. Job growth is expected to surpass 2.5 million in 2014 and next year.
"The economy finally regained the 8.8 million jobs lost during the downturn and we're starting to see more workers showing a willingness to quit, which usually signals they're becoming more mobile and confident they can find a higher paying job," he said. "Rising wages and the current pace of rising rents would likely persuade the Federal Reserve to raise short-term interest rates, which have hovered near zero for six years."
Yun expects inflationary pressure to force the Fed to raise short-term rates in the first half of 2015. Mortgage interest rates are projected to increase to slightly below 5 percent next year and reach 6 percent in 2016.
"The impact of rising interest rates on affordability will be minimal as long as job creation keeps pace," he said. "Furthermore, if the credit box slowly begins to open up, that will also mitigate the impact of rising rates."
The National Association of REALTORS®, "The Voice for Real Estate," is America's largest trade association, representing 1 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.
The National Association of REALTORS®, "The Voice for Real Estate," is America's largest trade association, representing 1 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.
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Thinking Of An Open House?
Open House Timeline
Countdown to a Successful
Sale By:
THE PRODUCER$
An inviting open house can put your home on buyers’
short lists. Four weeks before the open house
·Ask your parents to babysit the kids the weekend of the open
house. Then book a reservation for your pet with the dog sitter or
at the kennel. Having everyone out of the house on the day of will
help you keep your home tidy andsmelling fresh. Plus, no dogs
and no kids equal more time for last-minute prep.
·Line up a contractor to take care of maintenance issues
your REALTOR® has asked you to fix, likeleaking faucets,
sagging gutters, ordings in the walls.
·De-clutter every room (even if you already de-cluttered
once before). Don’t hide your stuff in the closet—buyers will
open doors to size up closet space. Store your off-season
clothes, sports equipment, and toys somewhere else.
·Book carpet cleaners for a few days before the open house
and a house cleaning service for the day before. Otherwise, make
sure to leave time to do these things yourself a couple of days
before.Three weeks before the open house·Buy fluffy white
towels to create a spa-like feel in the bathrooms.
·Buy a front door mat to give a good first impression.
·Designate a shoebox for each bathroom to stow away
personal items the day of the open house. Two weeks
before the open house
·Clean the light fixtures, ceiling fans, light switches,
and around door knobs. Aspic-and-span housemakes
buyers feel like they can move right in.
·Power-wash the house,deck, sidewalk, and driveway.
One week before the open house
·Make sure potential buyers can get up close and personal
with yourfurnace, air-conditioning unit, andappliances. They’ll
want to read any maintenance and manufacturer’s stickers to
see how old everything is.
·Clean the inside of appliances and de-clutter kitchen cabinets
and drawers and the pantry. Buyers will open cabinet doors and
drawers. If yours are stuffed to the gills, buyers will think your
kitchen lacks enough storage space.
·Put out the new door mat to break it in. It’ll look nice, but not
too obviously new for the open house.Week of the open house
·Buy ready-made cookie dough and disposable aluminum
cookie sheets so you don’t have to take time for clean up
after baking (you can recycle the pans after use). Nothing says
“home” like the smell of freshly baked cookies.
·Buy a bag of apples or lemons to display in a pretty bowl.
·Let your REALTOR® know if you’re running low on sales
brochures explaining the features of your house.
·Clean the windowsto let in the most light possible.
·Mow the lawn two days before the open house.
Mowing the morning of the open house can peeve house
hunters with allergies.Day before the open house
·Make sure your REALTOR® puts up plenty of open-house
signs pointing in the right direction and located where drivers
will see them. If she can’t get to it on the Friday before a Sunday
open house, offer to do it yourself.
·Put away yard clutter like hoses, toys, or pet water bowls
· If you have a fireplace lay fresh logs in the fireplace.
Day Of The Open House
·Put checkbooks, kids’ piggy banks, jewelry,
prescription drugs, bank statements, and other valuables
in the trunk of your car, at a neighbor’s house, or in your
safe. It’s rare, but thefts do happen at open houses.
·Set the dining room table for a special-occasion
dinner. In the backyard, uncover the barbecue and set
the patio table for a picnic to show buyers how elegantly
and simply they can entertain once they move in.
·Check any play equipment for spider webs or
insect invasions. A kid screaming about spiders won’t
endear buyers to your home.
·Clean the fingerprints off the front and glass door.
First impressions count.
·Put up Post-It notes around the house to highlight
great features like tilt-in windows or a recently
updated appliance.
·Remove shampoo, soap, toothbrushes, and other personal
items from the bathtub, shower, and sinks in all the bathrooms.
Store them in a shoe box under the sink. Removing personal
items makes it easier for buyers to see themselves
living in your house.
·Stow away all kitchen counter-top appliances.
One Hour Before The Open House
·Bake the ready-to-bake cookies you bought earlier
this week. Put them on a nice platter for your open house
guests to eat with a note that says: “Help yourself!”
·Hang the new towels in the bathrooms.
·Put your bowl of apples or lemons on the kitchen
table or bar counter.
·Pick up and put away any throw rugs, like the bath mats.
They’re a trip hazard.
15 Minutes Before The Open House
·Open all the curtains and blinds and turn on the
lights in the house. Buyers like bright homes.
·Light fireplace logs (if it’s winter).
·Didn’t get those cookies baked? Brew a pot of coffee to
make the house smell inviting. During the open house .
*Most Important!
Get Out Of The House
And Let Your
REALTOR® sell it!
Potential buyers will be uncomfortable discussing your home
if you’re loitering during the open house. Take advantage of your
child- and pet-free hours by treating yourself to something you
enjoy–a few extra hours at the gym, a trip to the bookstore, or a
